Pedosphere 23(2): 243--255, 2013
ISSN 1002-0160/CN 32-1315/P
©2013 Soil Science Society of China
Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science Press
Evaluation of spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated land use/cover in China using a probabilistic cellular automata-Markov model
CHEN Xu1, 2, YU Shi-Xiao1 and ZHANG Ya-Ping3
1 Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences and State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275 (China)
2Computer & Information Science Department, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224 (China)
3Faculty of Computer Science & Information Technology, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650032 (China)
ABSTRACT
      Using the fuzzy rule-based classification method, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images acquired from 1982 to 1998 were classified into seventeen phases. Based on these classification images, a probabilistic cellular automata-Markov Chain model was developed and used to simulate a land cover scenario of China for the year 2014. Spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover in China from 1982 to 2014 were then analyzed and evaluated. The results showed that the change trends of land cover type from 1998 to 2014 would be contrary to those from 1982 to 1998. In particular, forestland and grassland areas decreased by 1.56% and 1.46%, respectively, from 1982 to 1998, and should increase by 1.5% and 2.3% from 1998 to 2014, respectively.
Key Words:  classification image, fuzzy rule-based classification, normalized difference vegetation index, remote sensing
Citation: Chen, X., Yu, S. X. and Zhang, Y. P. 2013. Evaluation of spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated land use/cover in China using a probabilistic cellular automata-Markov model. Pedosphere. 23(2): 243-255.
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