Pedosphere 15(5): 595--600, 2005
ISSN 1002-0160/CN 32-1315/P
©2005 Soil Science Society of China
Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science Press
Simulating hydrologic changes with climate change scenarios in the Haihe River Basin
YUAN Fei1,2, XIE Zheng-Hui1, LIU Qian1 and XIA Jun3
1 LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 (China). E-mail:
2 College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098 (China)
3 Institute of Geographical Science & Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101 (China)
      Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenarios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition, under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.
Key Words:  climate change, regional climate modeling system, runoff, VIC-3L model
Citation: Yuan, F., Xie, Z. H., Liu, Q. and Xia, J. 2005. Simulating hydrologic changes with climate change scenarios in the Haihe River Basin. Pedosphere. 15(5): 595-600.
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