Global and Regional Surface Nitrogen Balances in Intensive Agricultural Production Systems for the Period 1970-2030English Full Text

A. F. BOUWMAN, G. Van DRECHT and K. W. Van der HOEK Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P .O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven (The Netherlands, Laboratory for Environmental Monitoring, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, P. O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven (The Netherlands)

Abstract: Global nitrogen （N） budgets for intensive agricultural systems were compiled for a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. These budgets include N inputs （N fertilizer, animal manure, biological N fixation and atmospheric N deposition） and outputs （N removal from the field in harvested crops and grass and grass consumption by grazing animals, ammonia volatilization, denitrification and leaching）. Data for the historical years 1970 and 1995 and a projection for 2030 were used to study changes in the recovery of N and the different loss terms for intensive agricultural systems. The results indicate that the overall system N recovery and fertilizer use efficiency slowly increased in the industrialized countries between 1970 and 1995, the values for developing countries have decreased in the same period. For the coming three decades our results indicate a rapid increase in both the industrialized and developing countries. High values of ＞ 80% for fertilizer use efficiency may be related to surface N balance deficits, implying a depletion of soil N and loss of soil fertility. The projected intensification in most developing countries will cause a gradual shift from deficits to surpluses in the coming decades. The projected fast growth of crop and livestock production, and intensification and associated increase in fertilizer inputs will cause a major increase in the surface N balance surplus in the coming three decades. This implies increasing losses of N compounds to air （ammonia, nitrous oxide and nitric oxide）, and groundwater and surface water （nitrate）.

Keywords：

animal manure; fertilizer; intensive agriculture; nitrogen; surface balance;

Series：
(D) Agriculture
Subject：
Fundamental Science of Agriculture; Agronomy
Classification Code：
S158

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