Pedosphere 16(2): 215--223, 2006
ISSN 1002-0160/CN 32-1315/P
©2006 Soil Science Society of China
Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science Press
| Characteristics of steep cultivated land and the impact ofthe Grain-for-Green Policy in China |
SUN Dan-Feng1 , LI Hong2, R. DAWSON1, TANG Cheng-Jie3 and LI Xian-Wen3 |
1 College of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094 (China). E-mail: Sundf@cau.edu.cn;
2 Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry, Beijing 100081 (China);
3 China Institute of Land Survey and Planning, Beijing 100035 (China) |
| ABSTRACT |
| The Grain-for-Green Policy in China could not only improve China's ecological quality, but also influence grain supplies for a short term. Based on data from the detailed nationwide land use survey in 1996 and the steep cultivated land survey update in 2000, a regression model for the driving forces affecting steep cultivated lands was developed, and cluster analysis was used to identify seven steep cultivated land types in order to analyze the grain availability impact of the project with land usage estimates for 2010 and 2030. The results suggested that consecutive days with minimum daily temperature over 10 ℃ and the dominant slope in a county constrained the spatial distribution of steep cultivated lands. In terms of socioeconomic factors, steep cultivated land was a complex interaction of population size, gross domestic production level, and the richness and quality of cultivated lands having slopes less than 15°. The trends for steep cultivated land in 2010 and 2030 were forecast using a driving forces model and China's grain security criteria and showed that the Grain-for-Green Policy at the national level would not cause a grain shortage or threaten food security criteria. However, if steep sloped lands were to be retired from production, some regions would need grain supplements as early as 2010. Also, assuming that only 60% of the cultivated land at the national level was needed, population and economic development pressures in 2030 would require some steep cultivated lands to be used for grain production. |
| Key Words: driving forces model, grain availability, Grain-for-Green Policy, steep cultivated land |
| Citation: Sun, D. F., Li, H., Dawson, R., Tang, C. J. and Li, X. W. 2006. Characteristics of steep cultivated land and the impact ofthe Grain-for-Green Policy in China. Pedosphere. 16(2): 215-223. |
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